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Beijing needs to rebalance
its economy away from excessive reliance on investment towards a more domestic
consumption driven growth model. Beijing will only be able to accomplish this
feat through targeted market-oriented reforms such as deepening reforms in the
land, labour and financial markets. In the meantime, the vested interests of China's
powerful SOEs, who have long enjoyed preferential government policies in an
effort to breed global champions, will remain a major hurdle in pushing
long-awaited reforms.
China is still on track to become the world's largest economy sometime during the new leadership's 10-year tenure. If China's policymakers fail to push much-needed reforms, foreign investors will look to other markets and marginalised sections of the population will grow even more restless. However, if China can stay on course - while battling increasingly visible signs of strain - it will herald yet another chapter in China's unrivalled growth story.
Click here to download the October 2012 edition
In the October 2012 edition
of The China Analyst,
we gauge China's progress in implementing these market-oriented reforms and
highlight the opportunities that companies need to be aware of as China enters
a new, more sustainable growth phase.
This edition includes the
following lead articles:
- China's
Economy: Heading for a Firm Landing?
- China's
SOEs: Stalled Reforms or Agents of Change?
- FOCAC
2012: Sino-African Partnership Gains Momentum
A new Commodities section focusing on China's role in global commodities trade is included to complement other regular sections such as: Procurement, where we take a closer look into China's rising labour costs; Strategy, where we explore China's role in Africa's development as an investor and major trading partner; Investment, where we analyse China's overseas resource investments; BRIICS, a macro economic comparison of the world's six major emerging economies; and four Regional Focus sections with analyses of the latest China-related trade and investment activities in Africa, Australia, Latin America and Russia.
The China Analyst is published by The Beijing Axis, a China-focused international advisory and procurement firm.
To view the current and past editions of The China Analyst online, please visit our website.
The China Compass - August 2012, published by The Beijing Axis, combines basic country data of China, as well as other major world economies, with more detailed analysis of a wide range of macroeconomic and social data; presents a comprehensive picture of the ever-changing and evolving Chinese landscape; contains up-to-date statistics, topical themes and insights; and is presented in a reader-friendly format as a useful desk reference for executives with a China agenda.
As China attempts to rebalance its economy towards a more sustainable growth pattern that puts a greater emphasis on domestic consumption while sheltering the economy from the global slowdown, we expect many cyclical and structural changes and increased volatility. However, we still do not foresee a hard landing.
Our focus and theme of this edition is 'China Moves Towards Growth Moderation and Sustainability', featuring sections on:
- Selected Macroeconomic Indicators
- Domestic Consumption and Foreign Trade
- Domestic and Foreign Investment
- Financial Indicators
- Social Indicators
We trust that this edition of The China Compass will continue to shed light on past developments, current issues and future prospects of the Chinese economy, making this fascinating and complex story slightly more comprehensible.
As always, we welcome and appreciate all
feedback.
The China Compass is published by The Beijing Axis, a China-focused international advisory and procurement firm.
For more publications by The Beijing Axis, including past editions of The China Compass, please visit the 'News & Media' section of The Beijing Axis website.
Here's a little mental leap. In the last few years Beijing's subway has expanded substantially, especially after a building blitz before the 2008 Olympics. At the time, Chinese companies have entered the Fortune 500 in increasing numbers. What if you would literally put these two completely disparate phenomena together?
This is the new edition of The China Analyst - April 2012. In this edition we ask you to prepare for a more competitive China. We ask you to change your perspective on China. 
- had the third-largest population of 94 million people (Shandong had 96 million; Guangdong had 104 million)
- had the second-largest cultivated land area of 7.9 million hectares Heilongjiang had 11.8 million)
- had the second-longest total length of highways at 245,089 km (Sichuan had 266,082 km), and the fourth-longest length of railways in operation at 4,282 km
- had the second-largest freight traffic at 20.0 billion tonnes (Anhui had 22.8 billion tonnes)
- Steady Growth Suppliers: China, Bangladesh, India, Vietnam, and Cambodia (Pakistan and Egypt can also be included on this list, but with smaller market shares)
- Split Market Suppliers: Indonesia (which is increasing its market share in the US and Japan, and decreasing its share in the EU), Sri Lanka (which is increasing its market share in the EU and decreasing in the US)
- MFA-era Suppliers*: Canada, Mexico, the Central America Free Trade Agreement, (commonly known as DR-CAFTA, a free trade agreement including the US and the Central American countries of Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Dominican Republic and Nicaragua), EU-12, Tunisia, Morocco and Thailand (all of which have all registered sharp declines in textile and apparel exports after the MFA quotas were abolished in 2005)
- Past-prime Suppliers: Hong Kong, South Korea, Malaysia and other countries with decreasing market shares since the 1990s such as the Philippines and Singapore
- With low cost domestic supply of cotton and low labour costs, Pakistan has a good track record for pure cotton apparel production for items such as male T-shirts and cotton jerseys
- Bangladesh still has an underdeveloped apparel and fabric manufacturing industry, although it also has very low labour costs and cotton prices. Thus Bangladesh can be targeted for sourcing of cotton garments of basic design and standard quality
- Sri Lanka has similar cost advantages as Pakistan and Bangladesh (although the cotton price and labour costs are slightly higher), but operating and capital costs are higher, and a lot more machinery needs to be imported. As a result, Sri Lanka could potentially only be a sourcing target for certain niche products such as women's underwear
- Cambodia's textile industry is still highly underdeveloped, but low costs and government support for the industry makes it attractive likewise for niche products such as basic design T-shirts
- Indonesia's cotton price is the lowest in the region, but operating costs are higher than most countries in the region and much of the machinery in the industry is largely outdated. Indonesia does, however, have substantial installed capacity across a range of textile segments, and hence can be targeted for a number of products such as synthetic fabrics, synthetic apparel, and high-end cotton shirts
- Vietnam has a lower cost base than China and India, although higher than Bangladesh and Pakistan. The textiles and apparel industry is actively supported by the government, and relatively significant currency depreciation makes the country's exports competitive. The local workforce is still largely of a low-end skill base, however, meaning that Vietnam's best sourcing opportunities are still in basic designs and standard types such as woven garments and children's products
- India has a diverse and integrated fabric and apparel industry, and it now has lower labour costs and cheaper cotton prices than China. These and other trends mean that India will likely gain a comprehensive competitive edge over China in the future. India can be targeted for sourcing fabrics and textiles across virtually all product categories
In terms of labour costs, cost to company per employee is increasing across China due to uneven supply, high demand, inflationary pressure, organised labour demands, and growing social spending requirements. But Western China still offers large pockets of very reasonable wages for skilled and semi-skilled labour, and foreign and local manufacturers in China are increasingly taking advantage of this. While it is true that wages are rising quickly in coastal regions, labour productivity gains due to investment and technical upgrades, especially in the machinery industry, have kept pace with the rise in labour costs (see chart above, left).
Chinese exporters of manufactured goods are also taking advantage of the massive local market. The demand for new plants, equipment, infrastructure – often one third to half of world demand – has created significant economies of scale and of scope for most of China's manufacturing sub-industries. The competitiveness and innovation in the construction machinery sector, for example, have primarily been driven by the country’s infrastructure build-up over the past 15-20 years. The same effect has benefited the producers of steel commodities and structural steel, construction materials, trucks, barges, electrical equipment, power generation equipment, etc. The infrastructure build-up and procurement demand, initially fuelled by foreign-invested companies and with some assistance from government procurement policies, government-approved projects, and the availability and low cost of land and capital, have generated a highly competitive and increasingly sophisticated plethora of local producers that are now dominating the Chinese market and aiming for global expansion.
The size and growth of China’s manufactured goods market is in effect supporting a self-sustaining cycle of cut-throat competition that features innovation, capacity expansion and upgrading, and ‘learning by doing’. Suppliers and clusters of suppliers compete with each other but an engineering talent pool and the related innovation usually travels freely and contributes to China’s overall manufacturing competitiveness. They take advantage of the more than 600,000 students who graduate with engineering degrees every year, excellent transport infrastructure, especially in coastal regions, and generally supportive government policies favouring Chinese high value added manufacturing. As industries across China consolidate and manufacturers grow and become more assertive in their quest for value-added production and profitability at home and abroad, firms sourcing from China must address the following question: How can we protect and consolidate our savings in sourcing capital goods from China through the establishment of a China procurement operation? At the same time, how can we move to the next level and take full advantage of an increasingly sophisticated manufacturing base?
The structural changes in China’s competitiveness across the sourcing spectrum will require procurement managers to shift some of their commodity spending from China to other LCCs, while increasing their orders of machinery, complex parts and high-value added consumables in China. In our view, the key to taking full advantage of a broader spectrum of cost and feature innovation present in the Chinese market is to move from a customer-supplier model of price-based sourcing with strictly dictated specifications and standards to a partnership-based approach where the supplier takes an active part in the overall project and in specifications design. This would entail a structured and patient exchange of ideas, a deeper understanding of Chinese manufacturing practices and standards, and above all, an open mind from both the customer and the supplier. Commercial practices would also require modifications. Contract management with Chinese suppliers generally relies less on contract enforcement and more on relationship management, so many of the standard contractual clauses traditionally used by international procurement teams are either not applicable or not enforceable in China, and thus create unnecessary burdens on suppliers and ultimately increase the total costs of the contract.
Ultimately, a sophisticated foreign buyer of Chinese capital equipment will probably need to adopt a number of Chinese standards, practices and approaches – all without compromising quality, environmental and labour protection standards, or good governance.
Two weeks ago I had the honor of attending, “The 10th Anniversary of China’s
Accession to the WTO: China’s Learning Curve,” conference jointly held by
the Research Center for Chinese
Politics and Business at Indiana University and the China Institute for WTO
Studies of the University of International Business and Economics. Sun Zhenyu,
China’s former Ambassador to the WTO, was among the over 40 speakers from the
WTO, Chinese and foreign governments, law firms, and leading universities
scheduled to share their insights and thoughts nearly 10 years since China
became a WTO member, including how China and the WTO itself has changed in the
time since.
During the second panel of day one titled, “The Effect of WTO
Entry on China’s Economic Reforms and Economy,” Mr. Christian Murck, President
of the American Chamber of Commerce in
China and Dirk Moens, the Secretary General of the European Union Chamber of
Commerce in China, shared their insights on China’s current status as it
moves towards a complete market economy. While both concluded that foreign
companies have undoubtedly benefited greatly from China’s accession and economic
progression, they both conceded there is still a lot of room for improvement.
To start, SOEs continue to enjoy too much preferential treatment (easy access
to low interest rates), stifling competition and some would argue, stifling
innovation. Simply put, more reform is needed for China to declare itself as a
true market economy. Other common
problems/concerns shared by American and European businesses alike is the high degree
of discretion local governments in China have when issuing and implementing
laws, which makes it difficult for businesses with a nationwide presence to develop
a unified China strategy. In the coming years as China’s working age population
peaks, and labour shortages become more widespread, China’s hukou system must
be reformed so that workers can move more freely between cities and companies
can hire the necessary personnel. In fact, it can be easily argues that
addressing these issues is in China’s best interest, as Chinese companies also
face the same problems.
Agreement on Government Procurement
The Agreement on Government Procurement (GPA) is a legally binding
and plurilateral agreement in the World Trade Organization (WTO) focusing on
the subject of government and local government agencies procurement (the only
one of its kind to date). The procurement in the Agreement includes a variety
of goods, ranging from commodities to high technology equipment, and services. The
GPA was established to eliminate discriminative laws and practices against foreign
supplies and suppliers in government procurement among member countries. For
member countries, the market opportunity is significant as the government procurement
of goods and services typically accounts for 10-15% of GDP for developed
countries, and up to as much as 20% of GDP for developing countries. Subsequently,
the GPA is currently being reviewed among the 42 members, so that it “reflects
the realities of government procurement in the 21st century,” according to senior
Swiss trade diplomat Nicholas Niggli, who chairs the government procurement committee.
An updated version will expand the coverage (range of government
procurements) in terms of the entities or sectors covered, which, according to
the International
Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development (ICTSD), would liberalise
access to billions of dollars worth of public procurement contracts.
According to a recently released working paper
from the WTO’s Economic Research and Statistics Division, the total value of
additional market access commitments that could result from GPA accession by 42
WTO members is in the range of USD 380-970 billion annually. The accession of the five BRICS countries –
Brazil, China, India, Russia (not yet WTO member, see below) and South Africa –
would, by itself, add in the range of USD 233-596 billion annually to that
value. Currently, Albania, China, Georgia, Jordan, Kyrgyz Republic, Moldova,
Oman, Panama and Ukraine are negotiating accession.
On 28 December 2007, China delivered its application and initial (largely
ceremonial) offer for acceding to the GPA to the WTO Secretariat. Subsequently, on 9 July 2010, China submitted
a revised and improved coverage offer. Although China has 15 years of WTO
negotiations experience, it is taking a different approach this time around as
shown in the first three years of negotiations. According to a working
paper presented at the conference, China, lacking a formal political
process of interest, is utilising its political leadership, organizational
arrangements, academia and public opinion to help guide its negotiations. China
has pledged to submit a “robust improved offer” before the end of the year, to
be reviewed at the WTO's ministerial gathering on 15-17
December. According to ICTSD, the offer would outline China’s proposal for
which Chinese government agencies would be covered under the agreement, what
thresholds would apply, and other coverage-related details. While it is
expected to well received by existing GPA members China’s accession is not
expected to be concluded by the end of the year.
Russia’s Impending Accession
After 18 years of negotiations, Russia and its USD 1.9 trillion
economy is on the verge
of joining the WTO after recently accepting a trade deal in early November with
Georgia, the former Soviet republic with which it fought a short war in 2008. The
compromise deal on monitoring mutual trade was the last major hurdle that will
secure Russia’s integration into the global economy and arguably the biggest
step in world trade liberalization since China joined the WTO. President Dmitry
Medvedev is hopeful that Russia will formally join the 153-member club by the
end of the year. On November 10, Russia
won approval from the WTO’s Working Party, which will draw up a final
document for approval by WTO trade ministers in Geneva on December 15; Moscow
will then have until mid-June to ratify its membership, which will become
effective 30 days later.
Accession is expected to stimulate Russian economic growth, boost
gross domestic product by an extra 11% in the next 10 years and help encourage
global companies, especially those based in the European invest in Russia. The
biggest beneficiaries of the WTO deal are global companies based in the
European Union, by far Russia's biggest trading partner, the U.S. and other
countries. According to Andrew Somers, head of the American Chamber of Commerce
in Russia, "The benefits for Russia are basically long term. It's going to
normalize Russia as an investment destination market. Over time, Russian
companies will be forced to be more efficient and competitive." While
Russian companies and exporters such as Russian steelmakers are set to benefit
tremendously through more favorable treatment in tariff negotiations abroad (the
average maximum Russian import tariff is set to fall to 7.8% from 10%), some domestic
manufacturing industries which have been largely shielded from global competition
such as food processing, textiles and construction materials, will most
likely suffer. Looking ten years into the future, if Russia does indeed join
the WTO, it will be interesting to see how much the business landscape in China
has changed, and if China is any indication, Russia will be remarkably
different.
Click on the map for a bigger view. 
In this cycle, China’s manufacturers are earning a sound
reputation for being “extremely efficient at creating new versions, often
simpler, cheaper and more efficient, of technologies and products shortly after
they are invented and marketed elsewhere in the world,” according to Dan
Breznitz, co-author of a newly released book titled, ‘Run of the Red Queen’.
The authors further argue China should focus on what it does best: making incremental
innovations in everything from manufacturing to logistics. In other words, the
millions of US dollars Chinese enterprises under guidance from the central
government spend on R&D, in an effort to come up with breakthrough
technologies that will put them on par with the West, is money better spent
elsewhere. A healthy portion of investment should be allocated to the sectors
shown above where Chinese manufacturers have taken on significant shares over
the past three years. In doing so, consumers both at home and abroad stand to
benefit, along with merchants and sourcing managers who are able to identify
the most competitive products Chinese manufacturers are producing.
The Beijing Axis has just released the new edition of The China Analyst, and this September 2011 edition focuses on the impact of China's business in the wider world, but especially the momentous impact on the developing world, which we describe as a new era that China is building in regions like Africa and Latin America. Sponsored by
